Analysis and prediction of Ya’an Lushan Ms 6.1 earthquake based on AETA

1st June 2022, Sichuan, China

On the 1st of June 2022, an earthquake struck China, in the province of Sichuan the aftermath was not as severe as previous earthquakes within the region, but still rather alarming.

The earthquake that had taken place, was monitored and tracked by the AETA team, which specializes in the forecasting of seismic occurrences.

Within this report, the AETA team will reveal their findings that point toward the possibility that earthquake forecasting is becoming more of a reality.

What’s AETA’s Process?

We have now entered the era of big data and AI, and because of it, we’re able to solve issues that may have been deemed unsolvable a decade ago.

AETA has taken on a technological approach to forecasting earthquakes by deploying multiple 3-part sensory systems in and around earthquake-affected regions.

Currently, over 300 of these sensors have been deployed, and are constantly gathering electromagnetic and acoustic data. The AETA team is actively collecting over 20GB of data daily.

The collected data is fed into AI-powered algorithms that can detect anomalies and forecast the occurrence, epicenter, and magnitude of earthquakes up to 7 days in advance. The weekly accuracy of AETA’s model is 72%, and 88% for daily.

The Ya’an Lushan, China earthquake

The AETA team managed to forecast the occurrence of the Ya’an Lushan earthquake with a 100% accuracy, however, their overall accuracy for its epicenter and magnitude varied.

Room of error for its epicenter:

66.3Km – 96 hours before the earthquake
54.3Km – 24 hours before the earthquake

96 Hours Before

24 Hours Before

Room of error for its magnitude:

4.1M – 96 hours before the earthquake
4.3M – 24 hours before the earthquake

The forecast of the epicenter is already very precise 96 hours before the earthquake occurred and only got more precise as we were getting closer to the actual event.

When we look at the epicenter, there is still room for improvement, but the main area of focus from these numbers is that big data combined with AI, is capable of forecasting
earthquakes several days before they occur with a high accuracy rate.

What the AETA sensors collected?

Judging from the data collected from the AETA 3-part sensors, we can identify signs that point toward an impending earthquake will occur.

Four data readings from four sensors out of thirty-one sensors deployed within the region. Many stations in the Sichuan province showed obvious signal changes before the earthquake.

The AETA team are leading the charge in earthquake forecasting, and have continued to break barriers that have once been explained as impossible. By constantly expanding and adjusting their method, in the future, earthquake forecasting will be a common reality in every earthquake-prone country. This is a huge step forward in overall risk reduction, saving thousands of lives and billions in economic impact.